出 处： 《学术研究》 2016年第9期85-92,177,共8页
摘 要： 城市的向心力来自于两个方面:当期的工资回报和未来的收入预期;城市的离心力来自于住房成本。这两种力量对比在不同城市之间的变化,导致了城市之间的分工互动的差异。由于城市土地供给是外生给定以及劳动力向城市流动的部分收益反映在未来的收入预期,而城市当期的住房价格既反映了当期的工资回报也反映了未来的收入预期,因此劳动力流入某一城市带来的住房价格上升会快于城市集聚效应带来的工资上升,从而导致两个城市的工资比线与住房价格比线变化不同步。根据两个城市工资比和住房价格比的相互关系,可以把城市群的形成和演化分为三个阶段:大城市兴起阶段、城市群形成阶段和城市群成熟阶段。深圳与东莞两个城市的案例较好地支持了本文的理论框架。 The centripetal force of city is composed of double aspects, i.e. the present income payment and the desired future income; while its centrifugal force come from the housing cost. The proportional variation of the two forces in different cities lead to the difference of labor division interacted among cities. Since urban land supply is a partial benefit of labor flowed to city which is reflected in desired future income, and the present urban housing price refl ects both current income payment and desired future income, the increase of urban housing price may faster than the income increase caused by the effect of urban assemblage, which may lead to insynchronized proportional variation of the income and housing price between two cities. According to the interaction relationship of urban income and housing price in two cities, we may divide the formation of urban group into three stages: the appearance of big city, the formation of city group, and the mature of city group. The cases of Shenzhen and Dongguan offer good examples to support the theoretical framework of the paper.