作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东农工商职业技术学院

出　　处： 《系统工程理论与实践》 2017年第6期1467-1478,共12页

摘　　要： 考虑农户受资金约束以及产出随机性，构建由单个农户和单个公司组成的订单农业供应链决策模型．在对比分析无资金约束下农户最优决策基础上，分别研究资金约束下不同情形f情形1：农户不存在破产风险；情形2：农户存在破产风险）中的农户最优决策，并得了到资金约束下农户最优决策的选择策略，研究表明：1）价格弹性系数可显著影响资金约束下的农户最优期望利润．2）调节贷款利率，可使资金约束下情形2中的农户最优生产投入量达到无资金约束下的最优水平．3）丰收年产出因子与贷款利率是影响农户最优决策选择的关键因素：①当丰收年产出因子低时，农户将选择情形1的最优决策，且与贷款利率无关；②当丰收年产出因子高时，低（高）的贷款利率会使农户选择情形1（情形2）的最优决策． Considering the capital-constrained farmer and random yield, we design a contract-farming supply chain with single farmer and company, and the scenarios of both bankruptcy risk and no bankruptcy risk for the farmer are put forward. The farmer＇s optimal production strategies of the two scenarios are analyzed respectively and compared with the optimal production strategies without capital constraint. The optimal choice of farmer＇s production strategies is achieved by analyzing comparatively the optimal production strategies of the two scenarios. It is shown that, 1） the price elasticity coefficient can significantly influence the optimal expected profit of the farmer under capital constraint. 2） the farmer＇s optimal production input for the scenario of bankruptcy risk can reach that without capital constraint under a proper interest rate. 3） In addition, both the output factor in the good year and the interest rate are the main factors that decide how to make a choice for the optimal production strategy： （1） When the output factor in the good year is low, the optimal production strategy for the scenario of no bankruptcy risk will be selected by the farmer. （2） When the output factor in the good year is high, the optimal production strategy for the scenario of no bankruptcy risk will be selected by the farmer if the interest rate is low, or the optimal production strategy for the scenario of bankruptcy risk will be selected by the farmer.

关 键 词： 资金约束 订单农业 随机产出 农户决策

分 类 号： [F224.3]

领　　域： []